Cesar Alvarez

Author Archives: Cesar Alvarez

January 20, 2016

Revisiting Strategies

Two years ago, I wrote an article, The issues with back testing a short stock strategy, about my short strategy and the issues I had with short backtests and shorting. Soon after publishing that article, I stopped trading my short strategy. I like to retest strategies 2 to 3 years after I stop trading them. I will admit that I do not do this with all my strategies because I forget to do so. I am looking to see how the strategy has performed since then and if the reasons I stopped have changed. Maybe it is time to start trading it again. The current market conditions and the fact that I wrote about this strategy gave me the push to remember to do it. So how has my short strategy held up since I stopped?

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Using Stops: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

I recently gave a presentation on Better System Trader about using stops on a breakout strategy. The research produced results I was not expecting and may be surprising to you. The stops tested are

  • No stops
  • Maximum Loss using ATR (Intraday and End of Day)
  • Maximum Loss using percentage (Intraday)
  • Trailing ATR (Intraday and End of Day)
  • Profit target using ATR (Intraday and End of Day)

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October 21, 2015

Biotech: My love-hate relationship

My love

RDUSa

My hate

CELGa

The two charts above are from recent trades I have taken. Charts created in AmiBroker.

On July 20, 2015 IBB, iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF, made a closing high of 398.  About three months later it closed at 289 for 27% loss. A very common thing I hear from traders is that they “don’t trade biotechnology or pharmaceutical stocks.” I completely understand. These stocks tend to be very volatile and news driven. But does removing these stocks really reduce your drawdowns? What happens to your Compounded Growth Rate? Time to see what the research shows us.

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September 2, 2015

What I am reading: Sept. 2, 2015

Recent articles that I found interesting and made me think. For more articles see the quant mashup Quantocracy.

Was Monday’s ETF Collapse Just A Warmup?

“The ETF can’t be more liquid than the underlying, and we know the underlying can become highly illiquid.”

 

Computers are the new Dumb Money

“Rational, experienced people understood that an ETF with holdings that were down an average of 5% should not have a share price down 30%.”

 

Avoiding the Big Drawdown: Is Downside Protection Helpful or Heresy?

‘Chasing the Investing Unicorn: Give me “High Returns with Limited Risk”’

 

Algorithm Aversion — Why people don’t follow the model!

“However, given this knowledge that models beat experts, forecasters still prefer to use the human (expert) prediction as opposed to using the model.”

Good Quant Trading,