Category Archives for "Stocks"

Simple ConnorsRSI Strategy on S&P500 Stocks

A frequently asked question is how I pick which variation from an optimization run to trade.  This post will cover a ConnorsRSI strategy on S&P500 stocks. We will use a wide range on the parameters to give us lots choices to be used in the next post. I the next post, I will show how I take the results and narrow it down to one potential variation to trade. And then the final post, I will cover parameter sensitivity to help determine if the results are likely overfit or not.

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Start Dates, Correlation and Random Strategy

In my last post I showed research on how optimization results can be mean reverting. Sometimes, my research keeps getting side tracked as I think of random ideas to look at. In this post, we look at the random walk my research took starting from my mean reverting optimization research. I will show how changing the start date can have a big change in the results, correlation of 1990’s to now, and random data and how it correlates.

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Mean Reversion and the Broken Rubber Band

A common way to describe a mean reversion trade is a rubber band that stretches away and then snaps back. Something that Steve, my trading buddy, and I discuss when a trade keeps going against us is that the rubber band has broken. I have never tested that concept. Meaning after N day sell-off, are we now more likely to continue to sell off than bounce? Doing research is not always about trying to develop a new strategy but sometimes it is testing a concept. The concept may lead to a new trading idea.

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ConnorsRSI Analysis

A couple posts ago, I did the RSI Analysis. This post will focus on ConnorsRSI which I created while working for Larry Connors. When  creating the indicator, the focus was on short-term mean-reversion results. We will look at that here but also how does it handle longer-term holds. Since I did not test this when I originally did the work, I was looking forward to seeing the results.

ConnorsRSI

ConnorsRSI is an indicator made up of three components. The first being a 3 period RSI on the closes. The second being a 2 period RSI applied to the current up/down streak. The last being a rank of how big today’s move is. Then a simple weighted aveage is used to combine them. For more details on the calculation and how to use it see this link.

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Adding Stops and Scaling Out to a Mean Reversion Strategy

I came on an idea recently that I had tested. I have tested adding max loss stops to a mean reversion strategy, with no success. See this post for more on that. About eight years ago, I tested scaling out of trades. But this person claimed that adding the two together was how to improve a mean reversion strategy. Interesting idea I had not tested.

I have a one question poll below about what to do with my research. Take 15 seconds to fill it out.

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