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Maximum Loss Stops: Do you really need them?

[…]A general pattern emerged that the larger the stop the better the results. I which point I decided to completely remove stops and this gave the best results. We could not believe it but tests on other mean reversion strategies showed the same thing. From that point on we traded our mean reversion strategies with no stops. I trade two stock mean reversion strategies with no stops. But it has been 10 years since that original stop research. Does not using maximum loss stops on a mean reversion strategy still produce the best results in terms of Compounded Annual Growth […]

Monthly Rotation – Closeness to $10

[…]last day of the month Sell on the next open Ranking Testing When testing a ranking method, I like to test in both directions. This lets me see if there really is anything to the method. Here, ranking with the highest modulo should give the best returns. Thus ranking with the lowest modulo should give the worst returns. If the ranking method really does not find good stocks, then those two rankings will produce similar results. WTF?!?! It really does work! It took a lot of effort not to scream in my airline seat when I saw these results. As […]

Strategy Up/Down Capture

[…]by the percent return of the SPY for each day the SPY is up. Then one averages all these numbers. For example if the SPY is up 1% today and your strategy returned 1.2%, then the Up Capture for the day is 120%. Down Capture To calculate Down Capture one takes the percent return of your strategy divided by the percent return of the SPY for each day the SPY is down. Then one averages all these numbers. For example if the SPY is down 2% today and your strategy returned -1.0%, then the Down Capture for the day is […]

SPX and Gold Momentum Portfolio

[…]to the other. Would this help with the MDD, which is high? Some reduction in MDD but not enough to compensate for the CAR reduction. The spreadsheet includes more percent allocations. Spreadsheet Fill in the form below to get the spreadsheet with lots of additional information. See the results of all variations from the optimization run. This includes top drawdowns, trade statistics and more. Final Thoughts Gold is an interesting trading asset. I used to be in the camp that did not want to trade it because the value assigned to it seemed arbitrary. Testing it on rotation portfolios slowly […]

Welcome

[…]researcher has a Holy Grail strategy they pursue. Mine is the breakout strategy.  I would love to complement the reversion-to-the-mean strategies I trade. Unexpected Results The unexpected result is my favorite thing about research. I have added filters to a strategy that I just knew that it would make it better, and then it makes it worse. Or the reverse, when I thought it was crazy to try an idea because it would lose money and it makes money. Idea Generation My ideas for what to research often come from my trading. I will see some pattern or the market […]

AmiBroker Custom Charts Course Signup

[…]knowledge of AFL. If you don’t yet have those skills, please consider taking the AmiBroker and Backtesting 101 course first.       Thank you, Cesar […]

Alvarez Club

[…]TO JOIN THE BETA The Private CommunityOnce you’re a member, you’ll get access to a community of smart, driven traders on a dedicated member forum, with channels open for discussing trading strategies, trading roadblocks, AQT posts, networking opportunities, and other topics of interest. It’s a community of like-minded traders just like you. This is your opportunity to share links, discuss topics, and bounce ideas off of other traders from around the world.Exclusive ContentMore Research— Each month we vote on research for me to do. The ideas are from members from the club. This is a great way to see research […]

Four good reads from the past week

[…]More specifically, the idea is to appear to know the information that other people do not know and to have a certain cleverness about your approach and how you look at problems.   Absolute Returns LOL If your so-called “Absolute Returns” hedge fund crushed it over the last 18 months, I have two pieces of news for you: A) it’s not really an absolute returns vehicle after all and B) it’s going to crush you when the worm turns, regardless of what you’re counting on it to do.   Volume and Volatility: Why Many Traders Have Not Been Making Money […]